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11-09-2015, 11:10 AM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
I am curious about the predictive accuracy of the so-called straw polls in this forum. It is pointing to some runway victories of WP? I am not so sure they got it right hence I write my thoughts here.
First of all, for the electorate, we can safely say there will be a hardcore opposition and pro-government blocs of roughly 30%. Whatever candidates put up on either side, they can roughly secure this percentage number, plus and minus 5% in a 2-way straight fight. Hence we have this middle 40% who effectively decide the winner - they are usually what I would call the 'intelligent" pragmatics as they will and can sway to either side. They have no allegiance but they have one wish - his middle ground backs having an effective government.
An effective government simply two things to them: A strong ruling group and a strong check and balance opposition group who plays an honest and responsible role - not the rowdy bunch you see for eg in Roy Ngern and triple H. WP is smart to avoid them like plagues and only RP is dumb to rope them in. The pragmatics would wish to have their cake and also eat it simply having a strong government and strong check and balance. They can achieve both these goals in 2011 as I elaborate more below.
1. PAP has got the record in managing this country, an impressive one and none of the opposition can even dare say they have one. Nobody in the sane mind can even say that the opposition side has that quality to form a government. Only the hardcore opposition group will disagree with this view.
Hence herein lies the intelligent strategy of the LTK who quietly decided right in the beginning, he will work the ground in what I would call a "grassroots" strategy. It was the same strategy Chiam See Tong used from what I gathered from Potong Pasir residents, but I think he did not recognize it and employ it to the fullness for his party. Long before the other opposition start doing it, LTK recognises that campaigning is a 5-year process and not 5-10 days when you can just turn up to be opposition candidates. LTK would attend funerals and make an effort to interact with the residents all years round, and his ability to use Teochew makes him popular with the masses. His fame spreads and by word of mouth, he secures a strong anchor and to his credit, Hougang becomes a stronghold of WP. His persona is to become a likeable and sincere person speaking sense and strength when required - a strong appeal to this middle group. Even PAP recognises his sincere devotion to the masses here, and me included.
Secondly, he put up a following stance - vote in the opposition as a check and balance, tacitly implying he agrees with the fact that PAP remains the only entity capable to govern. It is the only way to appeal to the middle ground. This strategy is intelligent as the 30% hardcore vote is already in his bag, no matter what. This ploy is similar to the "by-elections" strategy for that says that you can have a strong government yet with a strong check and balance. The middle ground is swayed to LTK's right approach.
I always say CSJ was politically naive as he threw away the goodwill and brand name built by SDP by his past confrontational antics. We can always say PAP did not play fair, but why be a willing actor in it? Singapore is not the draconian totalitarian state that he made it out to be. This time around, CSJ has turned out smart and quietly now backs the strategy LTK used. The middle ground wants a politician with quiet maturity but not with an angry angst. The politician needs to behave with a strong EQ seemingly in charge of the surroundings coz if you cannot do that, how are you going to run this country and speak on our behalf? CSJ basically wasted nearly 20 years of his life before he finally saw the futility of the old strategy hence emerging a new man in this elections.
3. PAP has the advantage to shift boundaries in whatever demarcation and it is a 'privilege' it uses smartly. What it could not do was to decide how the opposition parties would put their candidates. 2011 was the smart decision for LTK to put all his best known candidates, primarily himself, Sylvia and Chen Show Mao to stand for Aljunied catching PAP by surprise. Now 2006 was a year in which PAP won real big and only 2 opposition candidates namely Chiam See Tong and LTK won. Come forward 2011, wouldn't then voters be fearful of losing LTK as well given that Chiam See Tong was weak and down with a stroke? The electorate was confident that a PAP government will be formed with 2006 in mind, hence they could afford to vote for LTK in a GRC. It was a very smart gameplay by LTK using himself as the sole stake and notably, even a popular minister George Yeo was booted out then. No opposition with a total PAP presence is not what this middle group wants at all.
4. For many previous years, PAP machinery has been effectively 'demolishing' the opposition beginning from the sixties up to the 2000-years era. Hence what we have are very weak opposition who find hard it to field candidates of matching good calibre. Even now, for eg, look at the lawyers fielded by WP - they are junior or mid-level lawyers but compared to PAP - they are the Senior Counsel type. PAP has senior civil servants and security management who have spent years in government managing the country's security and economic issues whereas if you look at opposition, they are hobbled by the lack of such quality folks. There are some here and there, but not in sufficient numbers to match that of PAP. WP did a coup by getting Chen Show Mao, and his record for once was able to match that of PAP type of candidates. That Chen Show Mao effect did put the WP opposition in a good light.
5. Lastly there was the local issue of foreign worker dormitory in Aljunied which LTK exploited brilliantly. The government has famously refused a request by the residents in Serangoon Gardens for this foreign worker dormitory not to be built, inflaming the people there. LTK shrewdly pointed out to the electorate how important it is to have an alternative voice to tell the government "Look here, you cannot bulldoze and disregard what we want and I will represent your voice'. Goodness, how would not these people vote for this alternative similarly to the Anson 1980 fiasco of the PAP back then when it denied the voices of the residents not to demolish their flats.
Come forward to 2015, I do not see any of the following. There is no more of "Chen Show Mao" effect. He has not said anything for us to be wowed but he has been too 'quiet' in parliament. There are few local issues to grind at. In actuality, WP does agree with PAP in many ways and the only thing it cannot say it openly. Basically the only thing remains - folks still want LTK and Sylvia to stay around so PAP recognises it and not pushing for big guns to go after them. If it really wants to do so, it will have a hard time come 5 years later - an overwhelming PAP presence makes the middle group wanting to vote the opposition next time round. Let the people have some opposition members of parliament - that is the PAP thinking.
We now look at East Coast GRC and Marine Parade GRC, Fengshan SMC, Punggol East SMC and Sengkang West SMC - their candidates are a better group than the rest of opposition candidates but still "so-so' in quality compared to PAP. They lack appeal like those of LTK and Sylvia and they are more like rookies. Sylvia campaigns for nearly 15 years before she finally won - that was how long it took for her to form a good image to the electorate. WP still uses the same message "need for more stronger check and balance" with more numbers but still having a strong government. But this time round, this message has a contradiction : more opposition members could mean not having a strong government but also perhaps unstabilizing for Singapore.
The above point is particularly poignant for the middle group of voters - are they convinced enough to vote for opposition members yet creating a weak government in the process? It is not the same as 2011 at all when there was no threat of a weak government but rather weak opposition. Hence I do have difficulties accepting WP will win big in 2015. We only only 5-10% of this electorate to see through this contradiction and that is sufficient.
At the most, I will reckon it is status quo like 2011. It might even lose Punggol East coz that was won when PAP was already the government with no threat to being weakened and PAP is smart to settle the columbarium issue in Sengkang, and prevent it to be used as a local issue now. It has made a bad mistake thinking George Yeo was strong enough in Aljunied to withstand over the foreign worker dormitory issue. Hence, this middle group still wants LTK, Sylvia and Chen Show Mao but is not prepared to have a weak government.
Could WP have done differently in the last 5 years to prepare for current elections? And likewise SDP? I think they could but it is not a subject I will want to talk about here.
As for now, let me see how tonight will turn up. If WP wins big as predicted, then we have a different new normal in Singapore politics. Till the opposition starts to have more credible candidates, I will think PAP government is the best bet so far, putting sentiment aside. Actually I would like more intelligent debates instead of the usual blame and loony calls here but there again, it is the sammyboy - haha what would I expect to see anyway? To date, PAP is the only group with the capability to have accurate straw polls and this time, they are not panicking. It is possible they have a handle what is happening. Status quo is how I would see emerging tonight, and well I might be wrong.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?215822-The-intelligent-middle-ground&goto=newpost).
I am curious about the predictive accuracy of the so-called straw polls in this forum. It is pointing to some runway victories of WP? I am not so sure they got it right hence I write my thoughts here.
First of all, for the electorate, we can safely say there will be a hardcore opposition and pro-government blocs of roughly 30%. Whatever candidates put up on either side, they can roughly secure this percentage number, plus and minus 5% in a 2-way straight fight. Hence we have this middle 40% who effectively decide the winner - they are usually what I would call the 'intelligent" pragmatics as they will and can sway to either side. They have no allegiance but they have one wish - his middle ground backs having an effective government.
An effective government simply two things to them: A strong ruling group and a strong check and balance opposition group who plays an honest and responsible role - not the rowdy bunch you see for eg in Roy Ngern and triple H. WP is smart to avoid them like plagues and only RP is dumb to rope them in. The pragmatics would wish to have their cake and also eat it simply having a strong government and strong check and balance. They can achieve both these goals in 2011 as I elaborate more below.
1. PAP has got the record in managing this country, an impressive one and none of the opposition can even dare say they have one. Nobody in the sane mind can even say that the opposition side has that quality to form a government. Only the hardcore opposition group will disagree with this view.
Hence herein lies the intelligent strategy of the LTK who quietly decided right in the beginning, he will work the ground in what I would call a "grassroots" strategy. It was the same strategy Chiam See Tong used from what I gathered from Potong Pasir residents, but I think he did not recognize it and employ it to the fullness for his party. Long before the other opposition start doing it, LTK recognises that campaigning is a 5-year process and not 5-10 days when you can just turn up to be opposition candidates. LTK would attend funerals and make an effort to interact with the residents all years round, and his ability to use Teochew makes him popular with the masses. His fame spreads and by word of mouth, he secures a strong anchor and to his credit, Hougang becomes a stronghold of WP. His persona is to become a likeable and sincere person speaking sense and strength when required - a strong appeal to this middle group. Even PAP recognises his sincere devotion to the masses here, and me included.
Secondly, he put up a following stance - vote in the opposition as a check and balance, tacitly implying he agrees with the fact that PAP remains the only entity capable to govern. It is the only way to appeal to the middle ground. This strategy is intelligent as the 30% hardcore vote is already in his bag, no matter what. This ploy is similar to the "by-elections" strategy for that says that you can have a strong government yet with a strong check and balance. The middle ground is swayed to LTK's right approach.
I always say CSJ was politically naive as he threw away the goodwill and brand name built by SDP by his past confrontational antics. We can always say PAP did not play fair, but why be a willing actor in it? Singapore is not the draconian totalitarian state that he made it out to be. This time around, CSJ has turned out smart and quietly now backs the strategy LTK used. The middle ground wants a politician with quiet maturity but not with an angry angst. The politician needs to behave with a strong EQ seemingly in charge of the surroundings coz if you cannot do that, how are you going to run this country and speak on our behalf? CSJ basically wasted nearly 20 years of his life before he finally saw the futility of the old strategy hence emerging a new man in this elections.
3. PAP has the advantage to shift boundaries in whatever demarcation and it is a 'privilege' it uses smartly. What it could not do was to decide how the opposition parties would put their candidates. 2011 was the smart decision for LTK to put all his best known candidates, primarily himself, Sylvia and Chen Show Mao to stand for Aljunied catching PAP by surprise. Now 2006 was a year in which PAP won real big and only 2 opposition candidates namely Chiam See Tong and LTK won. Come forward 2011, wouldn't then voters be fearful of losing LTK as well given that Chiam See Tong was weak and down with a stroke? The electorate was confident that a PAP government will be formed with 2006 in mind, hence they could afford to vote for LTK in a GRC. It was a very smart gameplay by LTK using himself as the sole stake and notably, even a popular minister George Yeo was booted out then. No opposition with a total PAP presence is not what this middle group wants at all.
4. For many previous years, PAP machinery has been effectively 'demolishing' the opposition beginning from the sixties up to the 2000-years era. Hence what we have are very weak opposition who find hard it to field candidates of matching good calibre. Even now, for eg, look at the lawyers fielded by WP - they are junior or mid-level lawyers but compared to PAP - they are the Senior Counsel type. PAP has senior civil servants and security management who have spent years in government managing the country's security and economic issues whereas if you look at opposition, they are hobbled by the lack of such quality folks. There are some here and there, but not in sufficient numbers to match that of PAP. WP did a coup by getting Chen Show Mao, and his record for once was able to match that of PAP type of candidates. That Chen Show Mao effect did put the WP opposition in a good light.
5. Lastly there was the local issue of foreign worker dormitory in Aljunied which LTK exploited brilliantly. The government has famously refused a request by the residents in Serangoon Gardens for this foreign worker dormitory not to be built, inflaming the people there. LTK shrewdly pointed out to the electorate how important it is to have an alternative voice to tell the government "Look here, you cannot bulldoze and disregard what we want and I will represent your voice'. Goodness, how would not these people vote for this alternative similarly to the Anson 1980 fiasco of the PAP back then when it denied the voices of the residents not to demolish their flats.
Come forward to 2015, I do not see any of the following. There is no more of "Chen Show Mao" effect. He has not said anything for us to be wowed but he has been too 'quiet' in parliament. There are few local issues to grind at. In actuality, WP does agree with PAP in many ways and the only thing it cannot say it openly. Basically the only thing remains - folks still want LTK and Sylvia to stay around so PAP recognises it and not pushing for big guns to go after them. If it really wants to do so, it will have a hard time come 5 years later - an overwhelming PAP presence makes the middle group wanting to vote the opposition next time round. Let the people have some opposition members of parliament - that is the PAP thinking.
We now look at East Coast GRC and Marine Parade GRC, Fengshan SMC, Punggol East SMC and Sengkang West SMC - their candidates are a better group than the rest of opposition candidates but still "so-so' in quality compared to PAP. They lack appeal like those of LTK and Sylvia and they are more like rookies. Sylvia campaigns for nearly 15 years before she finally won - that was how long it took for her to form a good image to the electorate. WP still uses the same message "need for more stronger check and balance" with more numbers but still having a strong government. But this time round, this message has a contradiction : more opposition members could mean not having a strong government but also perhaps unstabilizing for Singapore.
The above point is particularly poignant for the middle group of voters - are they convinced enough to vote for opposition members yet creating a weak government in the process? It is not the same as 2011 at all when there was no threat of a weak government but rather weak opposition. Hence I do have difficulties accepting WP will win big in 2015. We only only 5-10% of this electorate to see through this contradiction and that is sufficient.
At the most, I will reckon it is status quo like 2011. It might even lose Punggol East coz that was won when PAP was already the government with no threat to being weakened and PAP is smart to settle the columbarium issue in Sengkang, and prevent it to be used as a local issue now. It has made a bad mistake thinking George Yeo was strong enough in Aljunied to withstand over the foreign worker dormitory issue. Hence, this middle group still wants LTK, Sylvia and Chen Show Mao but is not prepared to have a weak government.
Could WP have done differently in the last 5 years to prepare for current elections? And likewise SDP? I think they could but it is not a subject I will want to talk about here.
As for now, let me see how tonight will turn up. If WP wins big as predicted, then we have a different new normal in Singapore politics. Till the opposition starts to have more credible candidates, I will think PAP government is the best bet so far, putting sentiment aside. Actually I would like more intelligent debates instead of the usual blame and loony calls here but there again, it is the sammyboy - haha what would I expect to see anyway? To date, PAP is the only group with the capability to have accurate straw polls and this time, they are not panicking. It is possible they have a handle what is happening. Status quo is how I would see emerging tonight, and well I might be wrong.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?215822-The-intelligent-middle-ground&goto=newpost).